Pillhead

the personal views of a doctor in industry

Sales of New Drugs – no more blockbusters?

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An article in Forbes (The Value Of New Drugs Is Dropping) cast an eye over the initial sales of new drugs launched in the last decade. The article looked at data from IMS, and found that drugs launched in 2008 sold only a tenth as much in their first 6 months on the market as did drugs launched in the banner year of 1999. Despite the good news that the FDA approved more drugs in 2008 than in 2007, “new medicines contributed much less than 0.5% to the growth of the global market, another way in which the first half of 2008 constituted six of the weakest months in a decade”

At first sight, this article appears to fit our gut feeling that the “low hanging fruit” are taken and few blockbuster drugs remain. It also fits and confirms the results of the drive espoused by several firms for more drugs of middle revenue.

But looking at the way this article presents data looks a little like cherry picking to me. The period of study is 1998 to 2008, but one of the big comparisons is made with 1999 a “banner year”. And using “six” as a statistical cutoff is odd: “2008 constituted six of the weakest months in a decade”?

How bad is it really looking for us from this data?

first 6 month sales for new drugs

first 6 month sales for new drugs

If there is a trend here, and I do not see a clear one, then it is equally valid to say that the last three years have seen a return to form. Never since the hayday of the late 90’s, when pharma launched Singulair, Vioxx, Viagra and Avandia, have we seen sales at these levels. 

I do not think this would be an accurate refection, but it is important not to see what we want to see in the data. 

What I do see in the graph is a remarkably stable picture of first 6 month sales in the region of 5-10 million USD. It would be interesting to look deeper to see why. 

There is certainly no strong indication here that the drugs launched more recently are any different from those 10 years ago. For that conclusion, we need more data.

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Written by Pillhead

February 23, 2009 at 1:22 pm

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